Regional policy paper: West Africa case
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In this policy paper, an analysis of the security situation in West Africa will be found. In the
final part. recommendations bare in mind the intertwinement of different issues and their
regional, and therefore transnational nature of the threats. Direct violence is extreme in the
Sahel and the Lake Chad areas, therefore we assess actors to enhance joint military operations
along with foreign support, mainly in funding. This kind of violence lets free-passage to crime
networks to operate regarding sex trade and human and drug trafficking; to cope with this it is
proposed to combine educational and youth reforms together with economic development
promoted by the states and the regional organizations as the ECOWAS. Moreover, natural
threats are particularly severe in this African region, so this paper proposes to invest in
resilience technologies and methods concerning droughts and floods. All these threats
destabilize the region, leading to political volatility in local contexts; therefore, West African
states should reinforce public infrastructures and organization and reform its militaries in
order to confront insurgencies and its police corps to face other violent activities in an
effective way.
INTRODUCTION
West Africa region has been chosen to analyse because of its very diverse nature of security
risks. It is an area where we can find severe political, societal, natural and economical threats,
among others, and of which little attention is paid from the so-called West, excluding indeed
France, of course.
Despite the unequal footprint among the territories, terrorism has a major impact when
focusing on political threats due to its humanitarian consequences and its transformation, in
specific areas, into civil wars. West Africa is thought to be vulnerable to societal threats,
especially to organized crime due to its poverty, the weakness of governments and its
strategic location for trafficking routes (UNODC, 2009).
Natural catastrophes are linked to prolonged climate change consequences, rather than
punctual phenomenons, that have strong impacts on agriculture and thus in the economy and
the suppliance of basic needs; the lack of food and undernourishment have been for a long
time a major threat. In general terms, health has been always a relevant issue in the region’s
agenda: yellow fever and, later on, ebola, struck the area causing thousands of deaths.
A. Political security threats
Inter-state wars are unlikely to occur in West Africa, as there are many cooperation
organizations, such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the
African Union (AU). Also, it may be due to the fact that most of the states have many internal
conflicts or threats of different natures, as we are analysing in this paper; and then,
governments prefer to cooperate between them rather than engaging open armed
confrontation. For instance, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger created the G5
Sahel Joint Task Force to cooperate militarily and in police matters throughout the borders to
confront insurgency and transnational criminal activities with UN Security Council (UNSC)
and AU support (UN Security Council, 2017, S/RES/2359). In addition, as an example of
recent peaceful settlement of disputes, there is the mutually agreed ruling of the International
Tribunal for the Law of the Sea between Ghana and Ivory Coast concerning deepwater oil and
gas in the ocean border (Farge & Kpodo, 2017). Despite all this, an interstate war would have
substantial consequences because it would weaken more governments letting a free-zone for
violent groups and destabilization.
Military coups d’état are of medium probability given the numerous historical record.
Between 1990 and 2010 there have been 37 coups in the region (Marc, Verjee & Mogaka,
2015, p.103), despite that, the amount has indeed declined, as a result of better-built democracies thanks to multi-level pressures. Nevertheless, militaries have still influence in the
states and officer corps are “strongly factionalized” ( Idem , 2015).
Terrorism is one of the most pressing issues. Concretely, terrorist actions count as much as
33.141 deaths in West Africa during 2002-2018; that means the 15’1% of the world and
almost three-quarters of Sub-Saharan Africa victims, being Nigeria the third most affected
country worldwide (Institute for Economics & Peace, 2019). Terrorism has serious
consequences in the security of both states and inhabitants, for instance, Boko Haram used the
abduction and enslavement of 276 schoolgirls in Nigeria in 2014 as a terror-spreading method
(International Crisis Group, 2019, p.7). However, thanks to the recent split of this group they
have lost power. Despite that, one of the surviving groups, the Islamic State of West Africa
Province (ISWAP), is growing in power and influence and it is creating a “largely symbiotic
relationship with the Lake Chad area’s inhabitants” (International Crisis Groups, 2019). This
issue serves us to determine the next matter: state failure. In the aforementioned zone, jihadist
groups are replacing state’s governance and public services, a factor the empowers them and
shrinks state’s popular legitimacy. State failure is likely to happen if the direction of events
does not change, and that can lead to the creation of Islamist proto-states just as ISIL did in
the Middle East with catastrophic consequences regarding human rights, economy, stability
and such.
All of this should be linked too to existing civil wars and insurgency. The main civil war is in
Mali, where the Northern part of the country is not ruled by the official government but by
several actors as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the National Movement for the
Liberation of Azawad (NMLA), who are Tuareg separatists, and other jihadist militias
(Dukulé, 2019). To counter this issue, the Malian army is assisted by 10,000 soldiers of the
UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA, 5,000 of the Sahel G5 and 4.000 of the French
Barkhane Operation, plus the bilateral aid agreements between G5 members and the EU and
the US (Cooke, 2017).
To conclude political threats, it is necessary to mention that many terrorist conflicts,
concretely in Nigeria, become insurgency threats, as groups become militias with
military-kind organizations and they control vast areas of the country (Mahmood & Christian,
2018, p.7). Therefore, while analysing it may be difficult to differentiate well terrorism, civil wars and insurgency, as the degree of violent power and nature of these groups blurs frontiers
between these threats.
B. Societal threats
In a short period of time, West Africa has become a relevant scenario in drug trafficking, it is
the route for Latin America-and-Asia-originated cocaine and heroin heading Europe. E. g., the
UN Office on Drugs and Crime has expressed its concern and has highlighted the issue with
the following data: up to 30 tons of cocaine and almost half a tone of heroin travelled through
the area only in 2011 (Aning & Pokoo, 2013).
Drug-dealing networks have a growing undeniable link to the public institutions, their weak
governance and corruption has a direct repercussion on the state’s capabiliby to provide peace
and security, as it is an obstacle to proper development and ability to confront threats.
(Security Council, 2011).
Human trafficking is another relevant threat to be analyzed due to the existence of
transnational criminal networks operating with migrants heading Europe: since 2014 over
600.000 persons arrived in Italy through the Central Mediterranean route. (Kirwin &
Anderson, 2018 ). The net migration number for 2020 in the region is predicted to be minus
885,000, so there is an obvious pulse to leave the region, many of whom emigrate due to
labour reasons (International Organization for Migration, n.d.) or they are forced to do so:
only in 2018 over 620,000 West African refugees were registered. (Migration data portal,
n.d.)
In addition, child traffic for labour and sexual exploitation is remarkable, the International
Labour Organization (ILO) sets to almost 300,000 the number of children having been
trafficked in West and Central Africa for these purposes. (Sawadogo, 2012)
Concerning gender-related violence, sex trade and sexual exploitation are relevant. Statistics
show African women are 10% of the Western European sex labour market. In absolute terms,
- and taking into account that the victim detection rate is one to thirty - the number of
exploited women is estimated to be 17.000; in monetary terms, the market is worth around
USD 850 million (UNODC, 2009).
On the other side, it is stated that “domestic violence is one of the biggest threats to women’s
health and well-being (...) -especially those recovering from conflict-” (International Rescue
Committee, 2012). The same report seeks to get domestic violence treated as a humanitarian
issue; women’s oppression and gender discrimination are a structural problem rather than just
a “private matter”.
For these reasons, even if its relative impact is medium, there is a very high probability of this
particular risk to threaten the region, especially due to their structural causes: severe
inequality, economic limitations, the feminization of poverty and inherent corruption, among
many others (Sawadogo, 2012).
C. Natural catastrophes threats
In a context of worldwide insecurity regarding climate change, we could locate West Africa
as one of the most affected regions of the world, a hotspot. The hot days are expected to
increase and the temperatures will rise faster than in other regions of the world (Shepard,
2018). This will cause strong droughts, and it will be harder to cultivate having less
technological development in the agricultural field. The length of the dry spells will be longer,
making the plantation process almost impossible (Diedhiou, Bichet, Wartenburger,
Seneviratne, Rowell, Sylla, et al. & Affholder, 2018), added to the fact that economic and
institutional capacity to confront climate variability is very weak (Sultan & Gaetani 2016).
In addition, tropical climate affecting the South is accompanied by extreme rainfalls with
subsequent important floods that cannot be handled by the agricultors. These are getting more
severe as there is a deforestation process, where most of the water is kept (Fiorillo, Crisci,
Issa, Maracchi, Morabito & Tarchiani, 2018).
We locate both droughts and floods on “very high impact” on the risk matrix, as their
consequences are and will be catastrophic for the entire population. Moreover, they also
create food insecurity, agricultural economy effects, and health issues, as people lose access
to food and hunger could make people lose their integrity.
However, there is a difference: while droughts last longer and they are getting more frequent,
floods happen in precise periods and could be diminished by reforestation policies and others.
D. Economic/financial threats
On average the regional GDP has grown during the last years, arriving at 3.9% in 2019.
Despite this positive increment, underdevelopment and inequality are still major threats, as
43% of the population is below the 1.90 USD (PPP) per day, internationally settled as the line
for extreme poverty (African Development Bank, 2019).
In spite of the already mentioned economical rise, only about a third of the Ivory Coast,
Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria’s population between 15 and 24 years old participates in the formal
labour force ( Verjee & Mogaka, 2015). Youth unemployment is probable in the future and has
limited consequences. This kind of unemployment not only foment violence, discontent and a
frustration feeling but also encourages them to participate in drug-trafficking activities, which
enables to achieve wealth and social status (Alexandre, Verjee & Mogaka, 2015). Also,
informal economy employs up to 50-80% in some West African countries (Jütting & De
Laiglesia, 2009).
The fiscal situation is unstable too, for instance, debt interests absorbed about 70% of
revenues in Nigeria (COFACE, 2019), and other countries are affected in the framework of
the historical debt crisis in Africa that drag countries into budget deficits nowadays. However,
it is slightly declining, because of an expenditure reduction. Thus, the fiscal situation is
situated in the green boxes of the matrix, as long as the area does not suffer from any sudden
shocks (such as falling oil prices, natural catastrophes, political crisis, etc.), budget deficit or
currency devaluation, should remain under the control of the central bank and the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
E. Technological threats
As this region is not especially developed regarding technology in communications, structures
and services there are no particular risks to mention in this matter beyond the everyday
difficulties population have to deal with, which, nowadays, are not significative enough to
pose a threat to security.
F. Health threats
West Africa has gone through rough periods because of pandemics. The Yellow Fever and
Ebola have hit the region heavily. But there is an issue that involves the whole region and has
a direct impact on the health of their population: hunger. There are different reasons for it, but
“broad issues of poverty, natural resource disparities, unequal global trading arrangements,
and poor or corrupt government(s), among others” are the main reasons of it (Brown,
Hintermann & Higgins, 2009, p.8,016).
Having Sierra Leone the highest score (30.4) (Global Hunger Index, 2019b), the western
region is on a serious moment with the food issue according to the Global Hunger Index’
data. Niger, for example, ranks the 101st position out of 117 countries, but their situation has
been improving since 2000, where its score was 52.1, extremely alarming.
Despite the improvement of the situation according to the rank, malnutrition and its rise are
still an issue that worries the international community. In Niger, a low agricultural
production, conflict, population displacement, and increased cereal prices have driven the
country to a worsened situation on food insecurity (Global Hunger Index, 2019a).
Anyway, food insecurity is obviously not the only health threat. Attention must be paid to the
pandemics mentioned before: Yellow Fever and Ebola. The Ebola outbreak was one of the
most brutal pandemics of all-time, and its focus was in West Africa. Between 2014 and 2016
this illness killed more people (more than 11,000) in the region than it had done since the
virus was first discovered in 1976 (World Health Organization, n.d).
The Yellow Fever has been in West Africa since before the 1950s. The worst outbreak of it
was on the 1985-1989 period, in which 12.681 cases were reported (World Health
Organization, 2005). Even though it looked like it was under control after 1994, the disease
reappeared strongly in the 2000s. Since then, an effort has been made to stop the expansion of
the virus with vaccination policies and other measures that each country decided, but there are
still some small outbreaks that create an insecure environment.
On the risk matrix, both the food insecurity and the pandemics risk are located on the medium
impact, as they do not involve the whole society but are mortal for the ones who suffer it.
Furthermore, both pandemics and the food issue are risks that grow exponentially. Even though, they do not share the likelihood grade. While the food insecurity ranks the top
probability because it is not only likely to happen, but it is happening right now; the
pandemics are something that is not a real danger now. Anyway, historically, pandemics that
hit the region expand rapidly and there are few resources to cope with them, so any illness
that appears or re-appears could end up being unstoppable.
SWOT ANALYSIS
In this section, the attention has been focused on terrorism-insurgency as it is a threat with
very high probabilities to impact - it already exists - and strong consequences, that at the same
time are linked to many of the other analyzed risks: such as crime, economic, natural and
societal instabilities and risks. Terrorism and insurgency are analysed together because in the
region terrorist organizations act also as insurgencies the way militias do in same or different
areas.
SWOT Assessment of West Africa’s capabilities to confront terrorism-insurgency.
Key Strengths
- French military involvement (particularly in Mali)
- Foreign funding of security programs (EU + US + France)
- International involvement (UN: MINUSMA + AU)
- Regional cooperation (ECOWAS + G5 Sahel)
Key Weaknesses
- Extreme poverty (43% under the daily 1.90USD (PPP))
- Spread corruption
- Vulnerable geographic situation: exposed to significant
climate change consequences.
- Weak economy and high unemployment rates
- Lack of human rights implementation
9
Key Opportunities
- Possible NATO involvement (led by France)
- Further peace and security cooperation within the AU and
UNSC involvement
- Improvement on education to stop child recruitment
- Seize the terrorist-insurgent organizations
Key Threats
- Recovery of Boko Haram’s successors
- Strong climate change effects in the future (destabilization)
- Violent organized crime
- Lack of material well-being that leads to discontent
Conclusion and recommendations
As a summary, it can be said that political threats leave free passage to societal risks,
deepening inequality, extreme poverty and institutional weakness and instability; then
transnational organized crime takes advantage of that, all in a context of natural and health
threats.
Due to the aforementioned threats and risks of the Western Africa region, the following are
policy recommendations for states and regional and international organizations.
1. Enhancing a comprehensive military policy in the region, deepening and broadening
the G5 Sahel spirit.
2. Encompassing transfrontier integration to confront illegal crime and terrorism
through the ECOWAS.
3. Fighting corruption and watching for transparent management and control of the
institutions.
4. Cooperating with the EU, the AU and others in technological and funding matters
concerning natural resilience.
5. Improving t he s tate’s educational and youth systems to assure future perspectives to
new generations to prevent youngsters from being attracted by irregular activities.
6. Promoting e conomic development through the regional domestic market and sensible
and well-balanced public budgets.
7. Investing in technological methods to increase natural risk resilience.
8. Working o n common reform protocols and frameworks concerning the military and
police structures aiming territorial effectiveness.
As we have seen throughout the policy paper, all the threats analysed are interlinked and
increase each other’s likeliness and impact. In conclusion, for broadly-ranged and
transnationally distributed risks West Africa needs a comprehensive and regional approach to
its security.
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